NEW YORK, March 14, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:
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Product Synopsis
This report is the result of SDI’s extensive market and company research covering the Italian defense industry, and provides detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values including key growth stimulators, analysis of the leading companies in the industry, and key news.
Introduction and Landscape
Why was the report written?
The Future of the Italian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2017 offers the reader an insight into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to gain market share in the Italian defense industry.
What is the current market landscape and what is changing?
Italian defense expenditure increased at a CAGR of 0.35% during the review period and valued US$25.6 billion in 2012. Austerity measures taken by the Italian government will help in maintaining the budget deficit, wherein the focus of the Italian government will be on the modernization of equipment, training, and the development of personnel.
What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?
The Italian defense expenditure is primarily driven by its focus on joint development programs, the modernization of armed forces, and participation in international peacekeeping missions. In homeland security, counter terrorism, homeland infrastructure, and maritime security are the main areas of focus.
What makes this report unique and essential to read?
The Future of the Italian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2017 provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2013 to 2017, including highlights of key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.
Key Features and Benefits
The report provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2013 to 2017, including highlights of key growth stimulators, and also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.
The report includes trend analysis of imports and exports, together with their implications and impact on the Italian defense industry.
The report covers five forces analysis to identify various power centers in the industry and how these are expected to develop in the future.
The report allows readers to identify possible ways to enter the market, together with detailed descriptions of how existing companies have entered the market, including key contracts, alliances, and strategic initiatives.
The report helps the reader to understand the competitive landscape of the defense industry in Italy. It provides an overview of key defense companies, both domestic and foreign, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.
Key Market Issues
The purpose of the Italian government offset policy is to maintain and strengthen the expertise, capacity, and export potential of Italy‘s defense industrial base. The offset program applies when the amount of the main contract with the contractor for the overseas purchase, including government-to-government contracts such as foreign military sales (FMS) or research and development (RandD) projects, and technical cooperation and production, is equal to or exceeds US$6.5 million. The total value of the agreed offset program is 70-100% of the estimated main contract amount.
The Italian government, which owns a 30% stake in the defense conglomerate Finmeccanica, generally does not allow foreign companies to invest in the company due to concerns over national security. While the government is generally open for foreign investment, offering tax incentives and enforcing no restrictions on profit repatriation, these incentives are not offered on investments in the defense sector
Key Highlights
Italy is expected to see a large amount of fighter and multi-role aircraft procurement. Under a modernization program undertaken by the Italian MOD, a large number of aircraft will need to be replaced during the period of 2012-2022. This is due to the lack of modernization in the Air Force owing to extensive budget cuts that were enforced over the review period. Furthermore, as a number of troop reduction initiatives are expected to be implemented over the forecast period, focus on equipping the Air Force with state of the art technology has emerged as a major requirement for the Italian MOD. The F-35 JSF is the next-generation strike fighter for the Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, and US Allies. The JSF consists of three variants: Conventional Take-Off and Landing (CTOL), Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing (STOVL), and carrier variant (CV)
Italian defense imports fell in 2008, and again in 2009, following two years of strong growth. This was due to the focus on domestically manufactured goods and cuts to the defense budget. Italy has a competitive domestic defense industry. The state-owned defense company, Finmeccanica, is an internationally renowned group capable of delivering advanced technology equipment such as fighter aircraft, defense technology, and helicopters.
Italian defense imports are mainly driven by missiles, ships, and aircrafts. The country’s participation in various peacekeeping operations increases the demand for equipment such as artillery and sensors in order to improve the attack and protection capabilities of the force. Historically, ships and aircraft were among the major import categories, but this has reduced considerably in recent years. Defense imports are expected to continue to fall as the country is expected to increase its expenditure on missiles, missile defense systems, and advanced command.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
1.1 What is this Report About?
1.2 Definitions
1.3 Summary Methodology
1.4 SDI Terrorism Index
1.5 About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2 Executive Summary
3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1 Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1 Italy‘s annual defense expenditure to grow at a CAGR of 0.59% during the forecast period to reach US$28.8 billion by 2017
3.1.2 Maintaining NATO, EU and UN stipulations, modernization of armed forces and participation in international peacekeeping missions are the main factors driving defense expenditure
3.1.3 Italy‘s defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to grow from 1.29% in 2012 to 1.36% in 2017
3.2 Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1 Capital expenditure allocation to decrease and revenue expenditure to increase during the forecast period
3.2.2 A cumulative US$31.2 billion is expected to be spent on military procurements during the forecast period
3.2.3 The Italian Army leads the defense function budget allocation list with 34.4% share during the review period
3.2.4 Army expenditure expected to reach US$7.1 billion by 2017
3.2.5 Cumulative navy expenditure expected to reach US14.1 billion during the forecast period
3.2.6 Air force expenditure expected to grow from US$3.3 to US$4.4 billion during the forecast period
3.2.7 Common services expenditure is expected to decline from US$7.7 billion to US$5.3 billion during forecast period
3.3 Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1 Homeland security expenditure expected to grow from US$7.5 billion to US$7.8 billion during forecast period
3.3.2 Homeland security expenditure in Italy is mainly driven by activities such as terrorism in the country, mafia wars, and rising anarchist groups
3.3.3 Italy faces “some risk” of terrorism
3.3.4 Italy has a score of 0.1 on the SDI Research Intelligence Terrorism Index
3.3.5 Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan are the most terror-prone countries in the world
3.4 Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1 BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) are the fastest-growing countries in terms of defense budget
3.4.2 Italy has the tenth largest defense budget in the world
3.4.3 Italy is the fourth largest defense spender in Europe
3.4.4 Italy ranked ninth among top arms exporting countries over the review period
3.5 Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1 Fighters and Multi-role Aircrafts
3.5.2 Frigates
3.5.3 Counter terrorism
3.5.4 Maritime security
3.5.5 Homeland Infrastructure
3.5.6 Police modernization
3.5.7 C2C4ISR Airborne
3.5.8 Attack Aircraft
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1 Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1 Defense imports declined during review period
4.1.2 European countries such as Germany and the UK have entered in the import market in competition with the US
4.1.3 Missiles, ships, and aircrafts accounted for the largest percentage share in overall imports
4.2 Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1 Defense exports witnessed down trend during recession period
4.2.2 South American and Asian countries to account for a large portion of Italian defense exports
4.2.3 Italy has multiple defense trading partners
4.2.4 Aircraft, sensors, ships, and missiles accounted for the largest percentage share in the review period
5 Industry Dynamics
5.1 Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1 Bargaining power of supplier: Medium
5.1.2 Bargaining power of buyer: medium
5.1.3 Threat of New Entrants: Low
5.1.4 Intensity of rivalry: Low
5.1.5 Threat of substitution: Low
6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1 Market Regulation
6.1.1 Italian defense industry is largely driven by government regulation and policy
6.1.2 Restrictive defense policies to prevent increase in foreign investment
6.2 Market Entry Route
6.2.1 Technology transfer provides good market entry opportunities
6.2.2 Research and development collaborations offer market access
6.2.3 Joint ventures, partnerships, and licensing agreements are key market entry strategies in Italy
6.3 Key Challenges
6.3.1 Defense budget cuts across Europe challenge domestic defense companies
6.3.2 Entry of non-European companies
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1 Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2 Key Domestic Companies
7.2.1 Finmeccanica: overview
7.2.2 Finmeccanica: products and services
7.2.3 Finmeccanica: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4 Finmeccanica: recent contract wins
7.2.5 Finmeccanica: financial analysis
7.2.6 Selex Galileo: overview
7.2.7 Selex Galileo: products and services
7.2.8 Selex Galileo: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.9 Selex Galileo: alliances
7.2.10 Selex Galileo: recent contract wins
7.2.11 Selex Galileo: financial analysis
7.2.12 Selex Sistemi Integrati: overview
7.2.13 Selex Sistemi Integrati: products and services
7.2.14 Selex Sistemi Integrati: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.15 Selex Sistemi Integrati: alliances
7.2.16 Selex Sistemi Integrati: recent contract wins
7.2.17 Selex Sistemi Integrati: financial analysis
7.2.18 Oto Melara: overview
7.2.19 Oto Melara: products and services
7.2.20 Oto Melara: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.21 Oto Melara: alliances
7.2.22 Oto Melara: recent contract wins
7.2.23 Oto Melara: financial analysis
7.2.24 Fincantieri: overview
7.2.25 Fincantieri: defense products
7.2.26 Fincantieri: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.27 Fincantieri: alliances
7.2.28 Fincantieri: recent contract wins
7.2.29 Fincantieri: financial analysis
7.2.30 MBDA: overview
7.2.31 MBDA: defense products
7.2.32 MBDA: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.33 MBDA: alliances
7.2.34 MBDA: recent contract wins
7.2.35 MBDA: financial analysis
7.2.36 WASS: overview
7.2.37 WASS: products and services
7.2.38 WASS: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.39 WASS: alliances
7.2.40 WASS: recent contract wins
7.2.41 WASS: financial analysis
7.3 Key Private Companies
7.3.1 Elettronica: overview
7.3.2 Elettronica: products and services
7.3.3 Elettronica: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.4 Elettronica: alliances
7.3.5 Elettronica: recent contract wins
7.3.6 Elettronica: financial analysis
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1 Demographics
8.1.1 Total Rural population
8.1.2 Total urban population
8.1.3 Number of households
8.2 Economic Performance
8.2.1 GDP per capita at constant prices
8.2.2 GDP at current prices (US$)
8.2.3 Exports of goods and services (current US$ billion)
8.2.4 Imports of goods and services (current US$ billion)
8.2.5 Gross national disposable income (US$ billion)
8.2.6 Manufacturing output (US$ billion)
8.2.7 Consumer price index
8.2.8 Wholesale price index
8.2.9 LCU per US$ (period average)
8.2.10 LCU per Euro (period average)
8.2.11 Lending rate (%)
8.2.12 Deposit rate (%)
8.2.13 Real interest rate (%)
8.2.14 Market capitalization of listed companies (US$ billion)
8.2.15 Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP)
8.2.16 Total Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU billion)
8.2.17 Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU)
8.2.18 Central government debt (LCU billion)
8.2.19 Central government debt as % of GDP (LCU)
8.2.20 Goods exports as a % of GDP
8.2.21 Goods imports as a % of GDP
8.2.22 Goods balance as a % of GDP
8.2.23 Services imports as a % of GDP
8.2.24 Service exports as a % of GDP
8.2.25 Services balance as a % of GDP
8.2.26 Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ billion)
8.2.27 Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP
8.2.28 International reserves, including gold (US$ billion)
8.3 Energy and utilities
8.3.1 Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion kWh)
8.3.2 Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion kWh)
8.3.3 Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion kWh)
8.3.4 Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million kW)
8.3.5 Total Electricity Exports (Billion kWh)
8.3.6 Total Electricity Imports (Billion kWh)
8.3.7 Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet)
8.3.8 Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day)
8.3.9 Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels)
8.3.10 Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion kW)
8.4 Infrastructure Quality and Availability
8.4.1 Rail lines (total route-km)
8.4.2 Air transport, freight (million ton-km)
8.4.3 Overall construction (US$ billion)
8.5 Mineral
8.5.1 Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ billion)
8.6 Technology
8.6.1 Research and development (R&D) expenditure (LCU million)
8.6.2 Patents Granted
8.7 Telecommunication
8.7.1 Telephone lines (In million)
8.7.2 Telephone lines Penetration Rate (per 100 people)
9 Appendix
9.1 About SDI
9.2 Disclaimer
List of Tables
Table 1: Italian Defense Expenditure (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Table 2: Italian Defense Expenditure (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Table 3: Italian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2008-2012
Table 4: Italian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2017
Table 5: Italian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure(%), 2008-2012
Table 6: Italian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2017
Table 7: Italian Defense Capital Expenditure and Breakdown of Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Table 8: Italian Defense Capital Expenditure and Breakdown of Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Table 9: Italian Defense Function Expenditure Split (%), 2008-2012
Table 10: Italian Defense Function Expenditure Split (%), 2013-2017
Table 11: Italian Army Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Table 12: Italian Army Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Table 13: Italian Navy Expenditure (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Table 14: Italian Navy Expenditure (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Table 15: Italian Air Force Expenditure (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Table 16: Italian Air Force Expenditure (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Table 17: Italian Common Services Expenditure (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Table 18: Italian Common Services Expenditure (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Table 19: Italian Homeland Security Expenditure(US$ billion), 2008-2012
Table 20: Italian Homeland Security Expenditure(US$ billion), 2013-2017
Table 21: SDI Research Terrorism Index
Table 22: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2008-2012 vs. 2013-2017
Table 23: Benchmarking with World’s Largest Defense Spenders – 2012 and 2017
Table 24: Top Twenty Global Arms Exporters*, 2007-2011
Table 25: Offset Regulations in Italy
Table 26: Italian Joint Development Programs for Missile Defense Systems
Table 27: Finmeccanica – Product Focus
Table 28: Finmeccanica – Alliances
Table 29: Finmeccanica- Recent Contract Wins
Table 30: Selex Galileo – Product Focus
Table 31: Selex Galileo – Alliances
Table 32: Selex Galileo – Recent Contract Wins
Table 33: Selex Sistemi Integrati – Product Focus
Table 34: Selex Sistemi Integrati: Alliances
Table 35: Selex Sistemi Integrati – Recent Contract Wins
Table 36: Oto Melara – Product Focus
Table 37: Oto Melara – Alliances
Table 38: Oto Melara – Recent Contract Wins
Table 39: Fincantieri – Product Focus
Table 40: Fincantieri – Alliances
Table 41: Fincantieri – Recent Contract Wins
Table 42: MBDA – Product Focus
Table 43: MBDA – Alliances
Table 44: MBDA – Recent Contract Wins
Table 45: WASS – Product Focus
Table 46: WASS – Alliances
Table 47: WASS – Recent Contract Wins
Table 48: Elettronica – Product Focus
Table 49: Elettronica – Alliances
Table 50: Elettronica – Recent Contract Wins
List of Figures
Figure 1: Italian Defense Expenditure (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Figure 2: Italian Defense Expenditure (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Figure 3: Italian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2008-2012
Figure 4: Italian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2017
Figure 5: Italian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure(%), 2008-2012
Figure 6: Italian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure(%), 2013-2017
Figure 7: Italian Defense Capital Expenditure and Breakdown of Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Figure 8: Italian Defense Capital Expenditure and Breakdown of Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Figure 9: Italian Defense Function Expenditure Split (%), 2008-2012
Figure 10: Italian Defense Function Expenditure Split (%), 2013-2017
Figure 11: Italian Army Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Figure 12: Italian Army Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Figure 13: Italian Navy Expenditure (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Figure 14: Italian Navy Expenditure (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Figure 15: Italian Air Force Expenditure (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Figure 16: Italian Air Force Expenditure (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Figure 17: Italian Common Services Expenditure (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Figure 18: Italian Common Services Expenditure (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Figure 19: Italian Homeland Security Expenditure(US$ billion), 2008-2012
Figure 20: Italian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Figure 21: SDI Research Terrorism Heat Map
Figure 22: SDI Research Terrorism Heat Index
Figure 23: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2008-2012 vs. 2013-2017
Figure 24: Benchmarking with World’s Largest Defense Spenders – 2012 and 2017
Figure 25: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as a Percentage of GDP – 2011
Figure 26: Fighters and Multi-role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2012-2022
Figure 27: Frigates Market Size (US$ Million), 2012-2022
Figure 28: Counter Terrorism (US$ Million), 2012-2022
Figure 29: Maritime Security (US$ Million), 2012-2022
Figure 30: Homeland Infrastructure (US$ Million), 2012-2022
Figure 31: Police Modernization (US$ Million), 2012-2022
Figure 32: C2C4ISR Airborne (US$ Million), 2012-2022
Figure 33: Attack Aircraft (US$ Million), 2012-2022
Figure 34: Italian Defense Imports (US$ Million), 2007-2011
Figure 35: Italian Defense Imports by Country (%), 2007-2011
Figure 36: Italian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2007-2011
Figure 37: Italian Defense Exports (US$ Million), 2007-2011
Figure 38: Italian Defense Exports by Country (%), 2007-2011
Figure 39: Italian Defense Exports by Category (%), 2007-2011
Figure 40: Industry Dynamics – Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Figure 41: Finmeccanica- Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2007-2011
Figure 42: Finmeccanica- Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2007-2011
Figure 43: Fincantieri – Revenue Trend Analysis (Euro Million), 2007-2011
Figure 44: Fincantieri – Operating Profit Trend Analysis (Euro Million), 2007-2011
Figure 45: Fincantieri – Net Profit Trend Analysis (Euro Million), 2007-2011
Figure 46: Italy Rural population (In million), 2008-2017
Figure 47: Italy Urban population (In million), 2008-2017
Figure 48: Italian Number of Households (Million), 2008-2017
Figure 49: Italian GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$), 2008-2017
Figure 50: Italian GDP at Current Prices (US$ Trillion), 2008-2017
Figure 51: Italian Exports of goods and services (US$), 2003-2012
Figure 52: Italian Imports of goods and services (US$), 2003-2012
Figure 53: Gross national disposable income (US$ billion), 2003-2012
Figure 54: Italian Manufacturing output (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 55: Italian Consumer price index, 2008-2017
Figure 56: Italian Wholesale price index, 2004-2013
Figure 57: Italian LCU per US$, 2008-2017
Figure 58: Italian LCU per US$, 2008-2017
Figure 59: Italian Lending rate, 2004-2013
Figure 60: Italian Deposit rate (%), 2003-2012
Figure 61: Italian Real interest rate (%), 2004-2013
Figure 62: Italian market capitalization of listed companies (US$ billion), 2004-2013
Figure 63: Italian market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP), 2004-2013
Figure 64: Italian Total Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU billion), 2004-2012
Figure 65: Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2004-2013
Figure 66: Italian Central government debt (LCU billion), 2003-2012
Figure 67: Italian Central government debt as % of GDP (LCU), 2003-2015
Figure 68: Italian Goods exports as a % of GDP (%), 2004-2013
Figure 69: Italian Goods imports as a % of GDP (%), 2004-2013
Figure 70: Italian Goods balance as a % of GDP (%), 2004-2013
Figure 71: Italian Services imports as a % of GDP (%), 2004-2013
Figure 72: Italian Service exports as a % of GDP (%), 2004-2013
Figure 73: Italian Services balance as a % of GDP (%), 2004-2013
Figure 74: Italian Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ billion), 2003-2009
Figure 75: Italian Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2004-2013
Figure 76: Italian International reserves, including gold (US$ billion), 2004-2013
Figure 77: Italian Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003-2012
Figure 78: Italian Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003-2012
Figure 79: Italian Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003-2012
Figure 80: Italian Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2003-2012
Figure 81: Italian Total Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003-2012
Figure 82: Italian Total Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003-2012
Figure 83: Italian Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2004-2013
Figure 84: Italian Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2004-2013
Figure 85: Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels), 2003-2012
Figure 86: Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts), 2003-2012
Figure 87: Italian Rail lines (total route-km), 2003-2012
Figure 88: Italian Air transport, freight (million ton-km), 2003-2012
Figure 89: Italian Overall construction (US$ billion), 2008-2017
Figure 90: Italian Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ billion), 2004-2013
Figure 91: Italian Research and development expenditure (LCU million), 2003-2015
Figure 92: Italian Patents Granted, 2004-2013
Figure 93: Italian telephone lines (in millions), 2003-2012
Figure 94: Italian Telephone lines Penetration Rate (per 100 people), 2004-2013
Companies Mentioned
Finmeccanica , Selex Galileo, Oto Melara, Fincantieri , MBDA, Whitehead Alenia Sistemi Subacquei , Elettronica ,
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: Future of the Italian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2017
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