Jon Roberts looks at things through a different lens, which means he often sees things others skip over or ignore.
Roberts, managing director of consulting firm TIP Strategies, looks for disruptive influences that change the world. He will be the keynote speaker Jan. 26 for the 14th annual Southern Oregon Business Conference.
When an existing industry’s business model is disrupted, not only do captains of industry and rank-and-file employees feel the change, so do consumers.
“On the positive side, disruption can do things for us we never dreamed about a generation ago,” Roberts said. “Amazon, eBay and Uber offered entirely new ways to provide service for consumers. In the process they really threatened traditional models that were serving customers in the first place.”
In Uber’s case, where it is heading to fleets of autonomous vehicles, Roberts said, not only did Uber upend the taxi industry, but changed mass transit investment thinking, as well.
“When you’ve got a billion-dollar initiative to put in light rail expansion, a truly effective autonomous vehicle dramatically changes the effectiveness of road infrastructure.”
Likewise, disruption in technology has altered everything from communications to manufacturing.
“It’s brought us productivity, but not necessarily jobs in its wake,” Roberts said.
“If you order something on Amazon three days before Christmas, it’s still going to get there in time.”
Roberts will examine what Trump Administration policy changes could mean
“Is the reshoring of U.S. manufacturing going to be possible?” he said. “And what would it look like? On the flipside, tariffs are something we will have to anticipate.”
He will also explore the effects of new immigration policies on technology and agriculture.
“My value is in trend spotting in the noise and things that happen around us,” Roberts said.
Regions long dependent on natural resources such as Southern Oregon, Alaska and Texas can struggle for decades or adapt and move on.
“I’m going to be blunt if you’re clinging to a certain vision of what you can do in a region that puts you at a tremendous competitive disadvantage,” he said. “If you define the future relying entirely on natural resources, people will be bitter and disillusioned and will be in a very tough transition.”
Medford is prone to be geographically and topographically isolated, as has been underscored by weather-related road closures this month.
“Between Portland and San Francisco there are no major cities, and I think Medford needs to acknowledge it can be a major city, it’s a legitimate question.”
Roberts, who is a seasonal resident in the Bend area, spends much of his time Austin, Texas.
“It may sound a little silly, but living in Austin we’ve seen it go from a sleepy college town and state capital with a couple of hundred thousand people to (nearly two million in the area). Nobody expected that, but in a generation, things changed.”
Geography isn’t a great deterrent, he said. The choice is between remaining a distribution center for trees and adding a few thousand new residents annually or investing in infrastructure and amenities to handle a growing economy.
Southern Oregon Regional Economic Development Inc. hosts the conference at the Inn at the Commons. Tickets are $45 for SOREDI members, $65 for nonmembers. Go to www.soredi.org/events to register.
Rebecca Pomering, chief practice officer of Moss Adams LLP, will explore ways Boomers, Xers and Millennials learn and operate. Shallan Ramsey of MaskIT, Bob Hyer of Eagle Point Golf Course, and Scott Schumway of Cropper Medical/BioSkin will talk about their firms. University of Oregon economist Tim Duy provide a 2017 economic forecast.
— Reach reporter Greg Stiles at 541-776-4463 or business@mailtribune.com. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/GregMTBusiness, on Facebook at www.facebook.com/greg.stiles.31.
