As our European allies scramble to disentangle themselves from dependence on Russian energy, and as American consumers struggle with soaring prices at the gas pump, there are ever-louder calls for a renewable-energy and electric-vehicle future. These technologies, as the thinking goes, finally offer the U.S. a clean break from petro-dictators that has eluded us since the oil crisis of the 1970s.
But a pivot away from oil hardly means an easy or clean break from resource geopolitics.
In fact, a potentially accelerated energy transition means America’s energy security is now on a collision course with our mineral insecurity.
Wind power, solar power, electric vehicles, and the lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles are all remarkably minerals-intensive. As the International Energy Agency reported last year, the energy transition is likely to increase the demand for critical minerals six-fold by 2040. For some minerals — such as the lithium, nickel, and cobalt used for electric-vehicle batteries — demand could jump 30-fold or more.
But who controls the production and processing of these minerals? It’s a question just as messy and important as who holds sway over global oil and gas production.
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Unfortunately, China is the dominant player in the critical minerals space. China controls 70 % of the world’s lithium supplies and 85 % of rare earth metals. Beijing’s dominance of these supply chains has enabled it to corner the market on advanced energy manufacturing — with China producing the vast majority of the world’s solar modules and lithium-ion batteries.
China has turned mineral supply chains into an enormous source of geopolitical leverage, not unlike how Russia has used its energy trade with Europe. And where China has built its strength with mineral supply chains, the U.S. is painfully weak. America’s reliance on mineral imports has doubled in just two decades. We’re now import-reliant on 47 minerals—and 100% reliant on imports for 17 of them.
Recognizing the urgency of the moment and the scale of the minerals challenge, a bipartisan group of senators recently urged President Joe Biden to use the Defense Production Act to address the nation’s mineral insecurity. It appears that’s exactly what the administration is now considering .
If the president is serious about reshoring American manufacturing — and providing the supply chains his climate ambitions need while shoring up U.S. energy security — the Defense Production Act is exactly the tool he needs to employ.
Relying only on the market to dig us out of our mineral-import reliance — or to combat China’s industrial policy — simply isn’t going to work. We need to massively scale up America’s mineral production and processing, and we need to do it right now. Mining is a capital- and time-intensive industry, made all the more time intensive by self-imposed regulatory barriers. Employing the Defense Production Act can help cut red tape, de-risk investing in mining, and spur production at the speed and scale needed.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the supply-chain disruptions of the pandemic are forcing a rethink of resource and energy security and the vulnerabilities inherent in overstretched global supply chains. It’s a reevaluation long overdue. As the world leans into the energy transition, rebuilding America’s industrial base from the mine up is an urgent task that simply can’t wait.
John Adams retired as a brigadier general from the U.S. Army, is president now of Guardian Six Consulting (guardiansix.com) in Washington, D.C., and is a former deputy U.S. military representative to NATO’s Military Committee.
