Nobody knows how much the People’s Liberation Army is spending on preparations for high tech warfare. For the first time the US, which spends $100 billion on research and development for national security purpose, can feel China breathing down its neck in terms of military technology.
Today’s battlefield is no longer the same as the Pacific Theater of the Second World War. Intelligence is gathered in space, in the air, at sea, on the ground, and in cyberspace. Every second, an astronomical amount of data flows through the military system. Advanced computing, artificial intelligence, and top-notch semiconductors guarantee that the commander in the field can get the best advice for his battlefield decisions in the most efficient way. There are other high-tech domains, too, that could drastically change future battlefields: biotechnology, 3D printing, hypersonic missiles, and brain-machine interface, etc.
In fact, the battlefield has changed drastically. A pilot’s seat in a fighter or bomber looks like a seat in a game center for kids, with a big screen and a joystick. In 1990, Saddam Hussein’s army was instantly destroyed by US forces using space assets for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. In 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula overnight in a hybrid war combining cyberattack and special forces. And in 2022, Azerbaijan surprised the world by using drones to inflict heavy casualties on Russian tanks operated by Armenian forces.
Science and technology now determine who wins a war. China has made systematic efforts as a nation to copy advanced technology from the West. They have used students, professors, mergers, and buyouts of Western tech companies, and even cyber theft.
As a result, the US has started to think that the unrestricted flow of technology, in particular semiconductors, to China should no longer be tolerated. Without such a change, American soldiers fighting a future war with China could be killed by American technology.
The fear of a war with China is real. Xi Jinping was recently chosen as general secretary of Chinese Communist Party for an unprecedented third term. He is an ambitious man who wishes for his reputation to rival that of past strongman leaders like Mao Zedong or Deng Xiaoping. But, in reality, he has neither Mao’s charisma nor Deng Xiaoping’s economic achievements. He brutally destroyed freedom in Hong Kong, but he would claim this as a correction of history distorted by the Opium War. And he dreams of taking part Taiwan. In his view, Taiwan is a Chinese island taken by Imperial Japan after the Sino-Japanese War in 1895, and to which Chiang Kai-shek fled in 1945 to spare the Republic of China. The truth is that Taiwan is a free nation today. Taiwan’s then-president, Li Teng-hui, courageously democratized the island in 1996. The Taiwanese have their own identity as a free people, distinct from the Chinese state. On the other hand, Beijing, which is suffering from recent pushes for self-determination by Tibetans, Uyghurs, and Inner Mongolians, cannot accept Taiwan’s new identity. They will and must crush Taiwan’s democracy, by military force if necessary.
