The reelection of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has emphasized protectionism and tariffs as core policies, is expected to have a negative impact on the shipping industry in the future. Reduced international trade and lower import volumes in the U.S. may lead to a decline in shipping demand between Asia and the U.S.
The Korea Ocean Business Corp. (KOBC) released a special report titled “The Trump 2.0 Era and Its Impact on the Shipping Industry” on Nov. 8, detailing this analysis. The report identifies protectionism, tariffs, and fossil fuels as key themes of Trump’s administration, drawing on policy examples from his first term and statements made during his campaign.
The report suggests that the second Trump administration will likely increase tariffs and strengthen protectionist measures to promote reshoring, encouraging domestic manufacturing and reducing reliance on foreign goods. Such policies, including higher tariffs, reshoring, and potential adjustments to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), could decrease international shipping volume.
The report also forecasts that Trump may impose a universal 20 percent tariff on all imports and retain tariffs of up to 60 percent on Chinese goods to reinforce protectionism and address global trade imbalances post-inauguration. “The increased cost of imported products will likely be passed on to American consumers,” the report states, “and a decrease in U.S. import volumes could negatively impact the shipping industry.”
Changes in energy policy are also anticipated. Trump is likely to focus on expanding oil and natural gas production, actively utilizing fossil fuels. Although environmental regulations on shipping companies may be eased, delaying a transition to eco-friendly practices could ultimately harm the industry’s competitiveness in the long term.
The KOBC predicts that strengthened U.S. policies under Trump’s second term, coupled with China’s countermeasures, will have complex effects on the shipping industry. Accordingly, it underscores the need for shipping companies to secure long-term competitiveness by diversifying supply chains and preparing for exchange rate fluctuations and shifts in export strategies.
