Watch US Manufacturing Shrinks Less Than Forecast

Things are a little bit better in manufacturing. They’re still not expanding. We’re at 48.4. That’s from 46 five. But as you mentioned, it is better than anticipated. The production number is still down, but up just a little at 46. New orders, though, come in above 50, 50.4. So there is some hope for the future in this. And then the employment number, which everybody is going to try to plug into their models for Friday, 48 one from 44 four. So that’s a significant increase even if they’re not adding a lot of bodies. And then, of course, everybody’s watching price is paid 50.3 down from 54.8. So this number, these numbers today would fall into the category of the Fed can probably go ahead and cut rates in December is certainly not going to be anything totally decisive, but it is a little bit better than expected in both the employment and prices number. However, the headline number still below 50 for the 24th month. Wow. Out of the last 25. It’s interesting, market pricing not changing a heck of a lot. You have now a 64% chance nearly apparently according to WRP on the terminal for that December rate cut. The big moment of the week is still at the end of the week, as you alluded to with the jobs number. How does that picture start to change things? Well, once we go through the week, we will start getting we’ll get ADP, we’ll get the Isom services employment numbers and we’ll get the jobless claims numbers and all that gets folded into what people are expecting. But right now, the bet is we get a rebound from the dismal numbers in October, but the hurricanes and strikes behind us, the only question is how high does it go and then how much can you attribute to a rebound effect if it got really strong? And that would be something for the Fed to be concerned about. But probably anything up to 200,000 or a little more is is going to just be looked over by the markets. I’m looking at. I play with this new you can function that you turn me on to in terms of like I extrapolating various phrases from, I guess, earnings calls. I put in reshoring. Right. To see how much talk there is of bringing manufacturing back to the US. And I’m surprised to see that it actually has turned lower in the past few quarters. So there’s not as much talk about reshoring going into this next Trump administration as there was at the beginning of the last Trump administration. Well, I think people have basically figured out what they think Trump is going to do and what’s really going to matter. But remember, over the period of the Trump administration and the Biden administration, we’ve had a lot of reshoring. Now, it’s not as much reshoring as friend shoring, but a lot of companies have moved their supply chains closer to the U.S., either Canada, Mexico or to friendly countries in Europe. So they don’t have as much of a supply chain constraint as they had when the first Trump tariffs came.

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