West Midlands goods exports to outpace Germany – Fresh Business Thinking

14/08/2013

By Daniel Hunter

The West Midlands has moved into the fast lane in the international race for growth, with goods exports set to grow three times faster than Germany’s, according to the EY UK Goods Export Monitor, launched today (Wednesday).

The study — which tracks international goods export data by region, sector and trade routes over five years — shows that goods exports from the West Midlands are forecast to grow by 8.1% from 2012 to 2017, compared to a 2.3% rise in German goods exports. The East Midlands, South West and Yorkshire & Humberside are also topping the UK’s regional annualised growth table.

However, EY cautions that Britain is still battling to take a lead in the international race for growth. Based on real term data, the analysis finds that while UK goods exports are growing — they are not growing fast enough. The study forecasts just 0.3% annualised growth in UK goods exports to 2017, far behind the 1% European average. This is in part driven by a predicted decline in UK goods exports to four out of five of the country’s largest trading partners: USA, Germany, France and Ireland.

“Our analysis suggests UK goods exporters are lagging behind the wider UK recovery. We are seeing a decline in demand from our traditional large trading partners for UK goods to 2017,” Mark Gregory, chief economist at EY, explained.

“The US is starting to re-shore some of its manufacturing capabilities and competition from countries like Mexico, Malaysia and Poland, particularly at the nuts and bolts end of manufacturing, is increasing.

“However, UK goods exports are still growing, particularly into fast growth markets like Brazil (7.6% to 2017) and China (6.9% to 2017) — they just aren’t growing quickly enough to meet import demand. Now that confidence in the UK appears to be turning a corner,… continued on page two >